4 bets 2beaten a neck at over 20-1………..

August 15th, 2009

what do I have to do to get a winner 2 brilliant selections in the days hardest races and both beaten a neck, I deserve better just can’t hit the target, anyway 1 point LOSS for the trial with one day to go.

these were todays selections

2.50 newmarket
berbice large  bet……………………this horse when trained by R.Hannon ran to a mark of 105. i saw it run at Salisbury and it should nearly
have won the only time that it has run on firm going. It hates anything else and for some reason they connections have run it anywhere
they can on going it hates to get its handicap mark down…..?? today will tell, cheek pieces on for the first time , the stable like a gamble ,
the money has come from 25-1 this morning into 12-1 as I type this.
3.25 newmarket
sea of leaves medium bet……….is improving will like the extra furlong and has better form than the 7-2 fav bounty box, main dangers are
the other low weighted brenin taran and the huge priced satwa street
3.35 bangor
ecoile d’art large bet………………improved 15lbs last time when they held the horse up and now they seem to have found out how to ride
the gelding he can go on and fulfill his potential at the main expense of oceana gold
3.55 ripon
tamagin medium bet……………..on a few form lines Tamagin has a few of these beaten including markab on a line through genki, he is
perfectly drawn against the rail to make all the running, quite a few won’t like this fast going  or in judge and jury’s case the distance he
has never won over it,main dangers are Kostar who has won this before and advanced

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another **** day 3 bets 3 losers

August 15th, 2009

as any of you guys got a paper bag, no on second thought I wouldnt be able to punch my way out of it.

absolutely rubbish today, I know there big prices but I thought they would run much better.

So just hanging on with 21 points Profit left from a peak of 76 just not good enough, sorry guys

these were todays selections

Todays selections
2.55 newbury
toujours souriati medium bet……………typical Mark Johnston horse who is improving with every race and step up in trip, she looked likely to be
easily beaten at Hamilton but in the Johnston way responded to driving, the eye catching thing though is
the booking of Loise  phillipe beuzelin to ride her, there are of course plenty of dangers mainly the gelding
Strathcal.
3.45 nottingham
such optimism medium bet……………..this is a tight fillies handicap and on the figures such optimism comes out the same as the favs so at a
huge 20-1 has to be an excellent value bet, her only two bad runs were on soft going I think the extra furlong
and more conventional track than Goodwood  will  be in her favor. the favs haven’t beaten much and have
generally run in slow races
5.10 newbury
hallingdal medium bet………………………hallingdal is the type of horse who could go well for a gentler ride of an apprentice, if he can be kept closer to
the pace he has a good burst of speed

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poor day 4 selections and no winners

August 14th, 2009

not getting it right some how 4 selections 3x 4th’s and sadly one fatality pure genius, that is the worst thing about horse racing and my condolences go out to the connections and people who I’m sure looked after him well and will miss him terribly

STILL hanging on to our PROFIT  from the trial but to be honest I was hoping to make about 100 points over the 2 weeks, still 3 days to go and believe me I am trying my hardest.

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today results 5 bets =1 winner small profit

August 12th, 2009

all the horses ran fairly well today another winner would have been better but we still made a tiny profit of 5 points making it 55 points PROFIT on the trial so far

todays email

hi guys
 
this evening selection
 
6.00 royal intruder  large bet……………got everything in his favor again R.Hughes, 6f, Sandown, and a perfect draw so he can tuck in and swoop late like he did over c/d,
 
6.55 juste lille   large bet…………………from 4 runs here the mare  has won 3 over today’s distance and been placed 2nd over 12f which seemed too far, main danger
                                                             Homiere seems to have come into his own over 2f further and on faster going neither of which the filly has here has here
 
7.45 swift chap medium bet…………….have thought all along that he has been wanting this 2f step up in trip, and with James Millman who knows him well taking off
                                                             3lbs has to have a chance in the race, even though the ever improving Sequillo will be a tough nut to crack
 
8.05 shifting gold medium bet………….Amy Ryan gave Shifting gold a peach of a ride last time out over c/d and if she can do the same again will take some catching.
                                                             The 4f step up in trip appears to have been what he needed
 
8.15 taste the wine small bet………….R.Hughes seems a good choice od jockey to get the best out of this gelding where the up hill finish should help, he has to be
                                                             worth a small bet at the large price .main danger has to be the J.Dunlop trained devil to pay

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betfair forum.

August 12th, 2009

one of the members asked me if he could post up the free selections and results for the trial good or bad , I said he could so long as he did it after racing, and removed all links and names etc  so as not to be accused of spamming

 ”  free tipping trial for 2 weeks results daily  ” he is being abused by some guy on there who says all this is fictitious, if any one would like to add there two penneth good or bad about the services please feel free to do so, but please do not post any links ,names etc or it will get pulled.cheers micky

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day 9 of trial 4 bets = no winners

August 11th, 2009

horses ran ok one 2nd, one looked like it broke down going from cantering to p/u in a few strides ( mibleu ) I said Prescription wasn’t good enough and it bolts up by 4 lengths, so again not good enough BUT we still have a lovely PROFIT of 50 points over the trial period.

here are todays emails

hi everyone
yesterdays selections were both placed 3rd ran ok but sorry not good enough to win us any money ,they may as well have been last for what good 3rd does us .
Anyway on to today and just a quick reminder of stakes for all the newcomers
1 point for outsiders.
small bet = 2 points
medium bet = 4 points
large bet = 7 points
please set a side a small bank you can afford to lose and bet carefully x bank by 4 then double stakes and so on. just remember we had eleven losers on the bounce last week so be patient, careful, and I hope I will come through for you. and if we have a good winner don’t increase your stakes please, build up gradual the prices are usually big so WE DON’T expect to win every race just long term. 
FINALLY if you haven’t got your free spreadsheet from me then let me know and what format you want it in excel 2003 or excel 2007
 
tuesdays selections
 
3.15 mibleu medium bet …………this gelding is back in the class he runs best from has won over course and distance on this going the jockey knows him well and
                                                    takes a very valuable 5lb of, he would have been much closer to histoire de moeurs at Stratford except for nearly falling and the
                                                    9lbs he is better off should enable him to turn the tables, all the other horses in this race are very in and out and probably histoire
                                                    de moeurs is the main danger.
 
4.00 for life medium bet………….this fiery/unruly customer gets along well with Natilie Gemlova and should have the pace to get over from his 8 draw and make all,
                                                    all his best races have been at this c/d and going, don’t think prescription is good enough at the weights and the top horse al gilliani’s 2 runs
                                                    here haven’t been very good and he doesn’t seem in the same form and even with george baker back on will need to improve
                                                    considerably on his last couple of runs, main danger is another horse who loves it here forest dane,
 
                                                                                                 THERE MAY BE MORE SELECTIONS TONIGHT BETWEEN 5 and 6
7.15  gillburg small bet………I liked how this gelding quickened last time up a bit from a fairly decent pace in his last run at Haydock on similar
                                              going, maoi chin  tire looks the main danger on form but over the same course at Haydock his race was run over
                                              2 seconds slower
 
8.25 namir large bet…………..this horse has got the best form in the race and the bonus is on it’s first race for trainer Hj evans is that he has
                                               booked Louis-Philippe-Beuzelin and from my previous associations with the yard, from yard visits and
                                              I had a couple of shares in horses he has trained  I know when they book a top apprentice that it is fancied strongly,
                                              a lot of the other runners in the race aren’t in top form yet, my only doubt this morning was the going because he
                                              doesn’t want it soft but g/sft is perfect

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day 8 of free trial 2 x bets 2 placed 3rd so losers…..

August 10th, 2009

there were no bets on day 7

day 8 ……both bets ran well today coming third but still not good enough to get a return on our bets so both losers below is todays email

hi guys
lets hope we can match or better last weeks efforts of 76 points PROFIT
just a reminder for the new guys
please only bet what you can afford losses do happen I am not infallible, I I suggest starting with a £100 bank and £1 a point multiply your bank x 4 then double your stakes and so on, we do not win every race normally we win 1 from 4/5 races but because of the prices which average about 11.0 that covers our losses and makes a nice profit, last week typically on the trial we had 11 losing bets on the trot and still made 76 points PROFIT on the week, that is the beauty of the system  the staking, and the large prices, even from a bad position we come through most weeks but even I was shocked by 11 on the trot 9 was the most we had before.
staking is simple
we have
1 point for the rank outsiders
small bet = 2 points
medium bet = 4 points
large bet = 7 points
it is up to you how much a point you bet I try not to bet more than 20 points in one day usually will average around 12/13 points sometimes there are no selections at all, that is usually when I aren’t sure of the going if the weather has changed a lot, rather not bet than take a chance with you guys money
 
today’s selections
 
3.15 Ella        no bet …………………SHE WAS GOING TO BE A BET BUT BECAUSE OF HER TRAINERS POOR STRIKE RATE WITH HORSES RETURNING
                                                             FROM A BREAK I DECIDED NOT TO BET ON HER she improved considerably last season with every run, she should love 
                                                             the deep southwell going  the course will suit her front running style and Robert Winston has a 20% strike rate here ,
                                                             so if in the same form as when she last ran should have a great
                                                            chance. Robby bobby who much prefers it here than any where else and distinctive prince look to be the main dangers. Kensington
                                                             oval hasn’t done enough to justify fav ,jadalee’s form is nothing to set the world alight, and I am not sure if this deep Southwell going
                                                             will suit the free going lochiel,
 
3.30 silver symphony large bet………drawn in stall 2 has the perfect draw to make the most of her speed form the stalls and has already won on the polytrack,
                                                             dolphin rock ran his best race over this course albeit over a furlong shorter but looked like a step up in trip would be tailor
                                                             made for him, he is well drawn too so should rate as the main danger. Bahamian music’s win was on good/soft in a very
                                                             slow time and didn’t beat anything of note
 
5.50 any day small bet…………………with good apprentice j p fahy taking 7lbs off her back and back up to her best trip it puts the filly in with a major chance.
 
 

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day 6 an excellent day large bet winning @ 8.0 and medium bet winning @ 8.0 ( was 25-1 _

August 8th, 2009

about time too thought I had lost my touch a nice couple of winners Flapper and lujeanie who was backed from a morning price into 8-0 betfair s.p so gives us a nice PROFIT on the week of 76 points ,no bets tomorrow so will be back on Monday

here is todays emails

hi guys
sorry been very disappointing these last couple of days and I can’t even say we have been unlucky any where the selections just haven’t been good enough, but we still have a small profit so lets hope todays selections are good, leaving Ascot alone because of all the jockeys who might not know the track as good as they should so could be a few shocks.
2.10 angel rock medium bet………..in an open race I narrowed it down to flipando and the the slowly improving angel rock and with cheekpeices on for the first time and
jimmy fortune up looks to have an excellent chance of going in
more to follow about 4 just want to see how the going rides before I finalize selections
cheers and good luck micky
4.25 flying applause medium bet…………forget his last run at Nottingham he just doesn’t like the heavy, on his race before even though he ran slightly below par on a form
line ( 15lbs for 3 lengths ) he should dead heat with Capone but his previous 2 races were over 10lbs better so at 25-1 has to be
excellent value and I just have a feeling that the going might be just a shade too fast for Capone and ideal for flying applause, sea
rover likes it here and with jimmy fortune on could be the main danger, jilly why cant have the going soft enough and it won’t be
like that today
4.35 legal eagle small bet …………………is very consistent in this grade will handle the going and trip with no problem and with neil brown taking off 3lbs from near bottom
weight has to come into the race with a chance, even though red cape did us a favor the other day I don’t think  the 6lb penalty
will help the gelding, aye aye digby prefers it a bit softer think the main danger could be the Irish runner who needs fast going to
run well and runs shockers on any other going
5.10 flapper large bet………………………..this filly has a good level of form which was boosted by harriets girl yesterday, the stiff course should suit her admirably Amy Scott
gets on well with her and her poorest run was over 10f which she didn’t stay, the gradually improving so blissful looks the biggest
danger , volochova’s form is in a slowly run poor class 2 race ( for newmarket ) don’t think the ground drying up will suit the fav kindest
6.10 lujeanie medium bet…………………..four things in lujeanies favor tonight R. Hughes riding, 6f his the geldings best trip, but most importantly his best 3 races ever
have been in cheek pieces and there on today, and finally his two pieces of form at Kempton are on a par with the best here.
kyle has always been very in and out Memphis man is the main danger and is very consistent but is an infrequent winner
that’s it guys here’s hoping for a change of fortune
micky

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day 5 of free trial poor day again 4 selections = 4 losers

August 8th, 2009

another pretty poor day even allowing for the fact 2 were massive prices and only 1 was as short as 4-1, I still expect better but we are still just hanging on to 11 points profit so still in profit at least thats one good thing.

below is last nights email

evening guys got this sorted a bit earlier than I thought
6.45 professor john 1 point ……………with the going changing to soft it tempered my bet on the selection it was going to be a 2 point bet because I liked the way it stayed
on at Brighton a course which clearly didn’t suit him , this track will suit him much better and  excellent value at the price
7.15 spensley small bet…………………a lot of if’s and buts about the favs in this race dubburg is consistent enough but is a bit of a plodder , sulky mount hermon you don’t
know if he will reproduce his form in 2nd time blinkers or on this much softer going. spensley was improving slowly until his last run
when he ran as if something was badly amiss, fanshawe who’s stable is in much better form now has had a month to sort
him out so looks worth a small bet at a big price
7.35 le toreador large bet……………..everything is in place for le toreador to run a big race the course and the going should be perfect Amy Ryan is taking 5lbs off so the
gelding should be able to confirm ayr form with main danger but badly drawn nickel silver, racoon should be perfectly drawn in 1 to
give him a toe along till a furlong out when hopefully he will go past, hadaf is much too inconsistent to worry about and the in form
nifty fox much prefers softer going
8.00 goliaths boy medium bet ……..goliaths boy has got a bit of class and will be much better suited by the drop in trip and this easier going than the faster going
on his last 2 disappointing runs, paquerettza is admirably game and will be hard to beat but I think harriets girl will be a bigger
danger to the selection
8.20 river kirov medium bet………….the free running river Kirov was badly drawn out wide in 10 last time out over c/d and could never get buried this time he is much
better drawn in 3 to get buried behind the other runners and help him relax and save is energy , if that works then is previous form
is on a par with the favs and the 7lb good little claimer Toby Atkinson takes off could make all the difference plus
with the trainer having a 33% strike rate in the last 14 days and the jockey a 25% strike rate in the last 14 days that gives more
grist to the mill so at 4 x the price of the favs has to be the selection

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day 4 of the free trial poor day 5 selections = 5 losers

August 6th, 2009

a pretty crap day today but we cant win every day andwe still have a healthy 25 points PROFIT on the weeks so far

todays email was

right here are todays selections
2.50 sonhador 1 point …………………….. in a poor race a value priced outsider who’s last 3 runs have been poor, but some of the colts earlier form is on a par with the fav  and in the
hope that the 1st time blinkers will get the colt to keep is mind on the job is worth a small bet
3.50 chadwell spring medium bet ……dont think suprise party beat much when beating the forever placed but hard to win with astrodonna over c/d in a slowish time, I think that
chadwell springs form could be under estimated she has gradually come to form and with cheekpieces on for the 1st time to help keep
her up with the pace will be given every assistance with jimmy quinn on board over a track which I think will suit her better than the speedier
track at Lingfield
4.10 advisor  large bet……………………not exactly a hard selection  to pick out but it ticks all the boxes just gets in at odds of 4.0 as I speak and with lance betts taking off an
extra 5lb makes it an even better bet
thats it for this aft there may be a couple more for tonight
cheers and good luck micky
and then the evening faired no better
hi guys
we still have a good profit but not such a good day today so lets hope we can rescue something here
7.05 namu large bet………………got everything in her favour mainly the going which she can’t have too firm
7.55 sehoy medium bet…………I think this colt has everything in his favour comes from a family who like the going I think that with plenty of front runners the race will be
set up for his strong finish up the Sandown hill
good luck micky

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